I know a lot of y'all are tired of all the talk about 626 Flatbush. But as I've said many times it's really an oversized stand-in for everything that's going on all around us. In another life, the Q might have been an economist, because I'm endlessly fascinated by the workings, and failings, of capitalism.
A couple of years ago I first started noticing the degree to which our affordable neighborhood was becoming unaffordable to people of my own income level. Mrs. Flatbed and I bought a small rowhouse in 2003, and to make the mortgage we had to pay almost twice what we were paying for rent in le hot South Slope. So while it's still a stretch for us now with two kids and mostly just one income, we can just about afford it. I hope we're making the least we'll make during our working lives, while the little ones need lots of attention. But you never know. Do you?
When we first moved here in 2003, you could still get a one-bedroom for just shy of $1,000. I know because I kept on eye on it for some spectator sport reason that I've since mercifully given up. A two bedroom could be had for $1,200. (Remember, I'm not talking about the heart of the Historic District, rather on the southern side, where we have a bit of what I like to call the "Parkside Drawl.") The 2-bedder is probably what we would have gone for had we not decided to take the plunge and put more than half of our annual income into our home, which we hoped would be our home for at least as long as our mortgage, and maybe beyond. The American Dream. For a modern musician and rock dancer, wait, rock musician and modern dancer, it seemed extravagant, and we did our best to slide into working the kind of jobs that could afford us this life, while hanging onto our creative lives as best we could. Then we decided to have two kids. Whoa. Now we were REALLY middle class. Middle. Middle America. Though living in the 'Bush made it seem less middle middle boring middle. It's NYC. City of Dreams. The Big Apple. City of Broad Shoulders! (er, that's Chicago, but our shoulders are pretty broad too). All good. And this is, bar none, one of the most exciting neighborhoods in the whole borough. If you don't think so, you and I got different ideas of exciting. I mean world-class krazy fun and never a dull moment. And the Park, man!
My neighbors thought we paid an arm and two legs for this house at the time. It was the most anyone had ever spent on one of these Clarkson row houses - by almost TWICE. Actually, these homes hadn't traded hands much through the years. Some folks had owned their homes for decades, and some died in them. Maybe that'll happen to me. Never know. (I wonder how long I'll have to live here before I get to stop being a spoiled gentrifier?)
The rents and the housing prices had risen before - quite a bit actually since 1996, the start of the big housing run-up. Coming up on 2007, a lot of people were acting like they did during the late '90s tech boom - the bubble was in full effect, and you could feel it about to burst, or something. I remember that people I knew were buying up houses to flip...I never DREAMED of such a thing happening, but the frenzy was on. Then it all came crashing down, and true Argentinian-style meltdown nearly happened here. And then...wow. It started again, and the money that'd been waiting on the sideline got the greenlight to build, build, build. Where were all these people coming from to buy these overpriced apartments and houses? They weren't ALL coming from Manhattan. They were calling Brooklyn the "it" city. Really? Brooklyn? Well, okay if you say so. But a funny thing happened. The whole borough started to become wildly speculative in its pricing. Bed-Stuy even. Bed-Mothereffing-Stuy! And otherwise sane people started saying that this was the new normal.
My friends, this is NOT the new normal. Anytime you hear someone say that you know we're in a time of berserkness. Remember that book called Dow 40,000? And if I needed anymore proof, I got it tonight when I finally saw the numbers comparing the "affordable" rents to the market rents at 626 Flatbush. Remember, the affordable rent is unlikely to go up much, since it's based on 50% of median household income, which is roughly $50,000 a year for NYC and hardly budging. I know I don't need to tell you this, but it's worth thinking hard about in this context. HALF of NYC households earn more than $50,000. HALF of NYC households earn less. HALF. Wow. (If that doesn't blow your mind then, well, I guess you're not me).
Just a few years ago I noticed for the first time that market rents in Brooklyn were becoming twice what would be affordable in the old yarn that you should pay no more than 30% of your income in rent. Mind you this was in hip/desirable neighborhoods at the time, like Carroll Gardens, south Slope, Ft. Greene, even Williamsburg (though that started to go bonkers). People were starting to pay half or more of their gross income in rent. Crazy, but true. And the more hip folk moved here the more crazy it got.
So now I'm looking at the affordable rates vs. market at 626. And if trends continue, market rates will go up considerably by the time the building opens.
AFFORDABLE:
MARKET:
A couple of years ago I first started noticing the degree to which our affordable neighborhood was becoming unaffordable to people of my own income level. Mrs. Flatbed and I bought a small rowhouse in 2003, and to make the mortgage we had to pay almost twice what we were paying for rent in le hot South Slope. So while it's still a stretch for us now with two kids and mostly just one income, we can just about afford it. I hope we're making the least we'll make during our working lives, while the little ones need lots of attention. But you never know. Do you?
When we first moved here in 2003, you could still get a one-bedroom for just shy of $1,000. I know because I kept on eye on it for some spectator sport reason that I've since mercifully given up. A two bedroom could be had for $1,200. (Remember, I'm not talking about the heart of the Historic District, rather on the southern side, where we have a bit of what I like to call the "Parkside Drawl.") The 2-bedder is probably what we would have gone for had we not decided to take the plunge and put more than half of our annual income into our home, which we hoped would be our home for at least as long as our mortgage, and maybe beyond. The American Dream. For a modern musician and rock dancer, wait, rock musician and modern dancer, it seemed extravagant, and we did our best to slide into working the kind of jobs that could afford us this life, while hanging onto our creative lives as best we could. Then we decided to have two kids. Whoa. Now we were REALLY middle class. Middle. Middle America. Though living in the 'Bush made it seem less middle middle boring middle. It's NYC. City of Dreams. The Big Apple. City of Broad Shoulders! (er, that's Chicago, but our shoulders are pretty broad too). All good. And this is, bar none, one of the most exciting neighborhoods in the whole borough. If you don't think so, you and I got different ideas of exciting. I mean world-class krazy fun and never a dull moment. And the Park, man!
My neighbors thought we paid an arm and two legs for this house at the time. It was the most anyone had ever spent on one of these Clarkson row houses - by almost TWICE. Actually, these homes hadn't traded hands much through the years. Some folks had owned their homes for decades, and some died in them. Maybe that'll happen to me. Never know. (I wonder how long I'll have to live here before I get to stop being a spoiled gentrifier?)
The rents and the housing prices had risen before - quite a bit actually since 1996, the start of the big housing run-up. Coming up on 2007, a lot of people were acting like they did during the late '90s tech boom - the bubble was in full effect, and you could feel it about to burst, or something. I remember that people I knew were buying up houses to flip...I never DREAMED of such a thing happening, but the frenzy was on. Then it all came crashing down, and true Argentinian-style meltdown nearly happened here. And then...wow. It started again, and the money that'd been waiting on the sideline got the greenlight to build, build, build. Where were all these people coming from to buy these overpriced apartments and houses? They weren't ALL coming from Manhattan. They were calling Brooklyn the "it" city. Really? Brooklyn? Well, okay if you say so. But a funny thing happened. The whole borough started to become wildly speculative in its pricing. Bed-Stuy even. Bed-Mothereffing-Stuy! And otherwise sane people started saying that this was the new normal.
My friends, this is NOT the new normal. Anytime you hear someone say that you know we're in a time of berserkness. Remember that book called Dow 40,000? And if I needed anymore proof, I got it tonight when I finally saw the numbers comparing the "affordable" rents to the market rents at 626 Flatbush. Remember, the affordable rent is unlikely to go up much, since it's based on 50% of median household income, which is roughly $50,000 a year for NYC and hardly budging. I know I don't need to tell you this, but it's worth thinking hard about in this context. HALF of NYC households earn more than $50,000. HALF of NYC households earn less. HALF. Wow. (If that doesn't blow your mind then, well, I guess you're not me).
Just a few years ago I noticed for the first time that market rents in Brooklyn were becoming twice what would be affordable in the old yarn that you should pay no more than 30% of your income in rent. Mind you this was in hip/desirable neighborhoods at the time, like Carroll Gardens, south Slope, Ft. Greene, even Williamsburg (though that started to go bonkers). People were starting to pay half or more of their gross income in rent. Crazy, but true. And the more hip folk moved here the more crazy it got.
So now I'm looking at the affordable rates vs. market at 626. And if trends continue, market rates will go up considerably by the time the building opens.
AFFORDABLE:
Studio - $696
1 bedroom- $748
2 bedroom - $908
3 bedroom $1039
Studio - $1,875
1 bedroom - $2,200
2 bedroom - $2,800
3 bedroom - $3,500
I recall from my book learning that it was just a hundred years ago that socialism and its naughty brother communism broke through to the level of the State. By 50 years ago we'd built nearly 200,000 units of public housing in NYC. By 45 years ago we passed the Rent Stabilization Law. By 35 years ago the City went bankrupt. 30 years ago marked the first age of the yuppy. 25 years ago housing prices plunged. 20 years ago Courtney Love had a hit record. 15 years ago everyone wanted to start a dot com and we all lost our minds in the stock market and frenzied speculation. 13 years ago planes hit the towers and we wondered if NYC would ever recover. From then til now, minus the speed bump of 2008-9, we've been on a tear. A bloombergian mega tear.
It's not sustainable. We're in a bubble. We're in madness. You don't usually know when you're insane. I mean that's part of the definition of insanity, right? Doing the same thing and expecting different results?
Madness. Unadulterated madness.
